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Ready to Roll: The Benefits of Today’s Advanced-Technology Vehicles for Washington 10/13/2005 ReadyToRoll.pdf

Executive Summary

Despite tighter automobile emission standards over the last three decades, Washington continues to face significant automobilerelated air pollution problems. Increasing the use of advanced-technology vehicles—those that use cleaner, alternative fuels or new technological advances to achieve dramatically improved environmental performance —could alleviate the state’s air pollution problems while reducing Washington’s contribution to global warming and enhancing the state’s energy security.

Policies such as the Clean Cars program, which requires the sale of low- and near-zero-emission vehicles and establishes standards for global warming pollution from vehicles, can help bring increased numbers of advanced-technology vehicles to the state.

The inefficient use of petroleum to power the state’s transportation system poses serious threats to Washington’s environment and economy.

- Concentrations of air toxics such as benzene and formaldehyde raise Washington residents’ cancer risk above federal health goals (p. 9).

- During the summer of 2003, air pollution monitors in Washington registered three instances when smog levels exceeded EPA health standards. Lightduty vehicles such as cars, pick-up trucks, minivans and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) are responsible for almost one half of all emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the air. Nitrogen oxides and VOCs are the chemical components of smog (p. 10).

- The transportation sector, including cars and light trucks, is responsible for nearly half of Washington’s emissions of greenhouse gases, which cause global warming. Global warming poses severe potential threats to mountain snowpack and the state’s water cycle, coastal and forest ecosystems, and public health (p. 10).

- Washington’s overreliance on petroleum for transportation leaves the state susceptible to rising prices, price spikes and supply disruptions. These problems will become more severe over the next several decades as global petroleum supplies tighten.

Advanced-technology vehicles can alleviate many of these problems.

- Advanced-technology vehicles can significantly reduce emissions of air toxics and smog-forming pollutants from Washington cars and light trucks. The current generation of hybrid-electric vehicles—such as the Toyota Prius, the Ford Escape and the Honda Civic—are much cleaner than the average vehicle on sale in Washington today (p. 16). Clean conventional vehicles with state-of-the-art emission-reduction technology are now being manufactured that attain similar air toxics and VOC pollution reductions (p. 19).

- Advanced-technology vehicles can also reduce Washington’s emissions of greenhouse gases, which cause global warming. Vehicles that take advantage of the benefits of hybrid-electric motors and other advances in automotive technology can produce about one-third less global warming-inducing carbon dioxide per mile than conventional
vehicles (p. 21).

- Advanced-technology vehicles can enhance Washington’s energy security by improving fuel efficiency or by using alternative fuels such as natural gas, electric power or renewably generated hydrogen.

Several types of advanced-technology vehicles are “ready to roll,” yet availability of these vehicles in Washington is limited.

- Hybrid-electric vehicles: About 85,000 hybrid-electric vehicles were sold in the U.S. in 2004, an increase of 63 percent over the previous year. As many as 60 percent of potential vehicle buyers surveyed stated that they would consider buying a hybrid, yet Washington auto dealers report waiting lists of six months for the popular Toyota Prius hybrid (p. 17- 18).

• Clean conventional vehicles: Thirteen automakers now manufacture vehicles that meet California’s rigorous partial Zero Emission Vehicle (PZEV) emission standards. However, many of these vehicles have been made available only to consumers in states that have adopted the Clean Cars program (p. 21-23).

• Natural gas vehicles: More than 130,000 natural gas vehicles are currently on American roads in a variety of styles and configurations. Yet, only one automaker is thus far offering them for sale to the general public (p. 25-26).

• Other types of vehicles—such as battery-electric vehicles, “plug-in” hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles—also show the potential for significant environmental benefits, but
will require further research and development before they become commercially feasible on the broad automobile market.

Adopting the Clean Cars program would put tens of thousands of advanced- technology cars, light trucks, and SUVs on Washington’s roads by the end of the decade, at minimal additional cost to automakers and potential net benefit to consumers. One component of the program is known as the Low-Emission Vehicle program, or LEV II.

- The LEV II program would require automakers to sell approximately 12,000 hybrid-electric vehicles and 52,400 clean conventional gasolinepowered vehicles in Washington in
2008 (when model year 2009 vehicles go on sale, and assuming no significant growth in total car sales), with the numbers increasing over time (p. 37).

- Producing vehicles to meet these targets would cost automakers approximately $19.5 million in 2008. The incremental cost of the program in 2008 represents 0.0025 percent of gross sales at the six major manufacturers. These costs will be offset by financial benefits from technology improvements that can be exported to other vehicle lines, assistance in complying with other regulatory standards, and consumers’ willingness to pay more for some vehicles with reduced emissions (p. 40-41).

- Consumers are unlikely to be negatively affected by the program. Most automakers have chosen not to pass on the direct additional cost of conforming with PZEV emission standards. Should the cost of hybrid-electric vehicles decrease (as is anticipated) and gas prices continue to rise, many consumers will see a net financial benefit from purchasing hybrid-electric vehicles (p. 41-42).

- Automakers have already invested in research and production facilities necessary to comply with standards in other states, which represent 26 percent of the national car market (p. 40).

Another part of the Clean Cars program, vehicle global warming pollution standards, will begin reducing the contribution of automobiles to greenhouse gas pollution in 2008 in states that adopt the standards.

- The vehicle global warming pollution standards seek to “achieve the maximum feasible and cost effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.” Limits on vehicle travel, new gasoline or vehicle taxes, or limitations on ownership of SUVs or other light trucks cannot be imposed to attain the new standards (p. 42).

- By 2012, the standards could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from new cars by 25 percent and from new light trucks by 18 percent. These emissions reductions would save consumers money by reducing vehicle operating costs (p. 43).

Adoption of the Clean Cars program is essential to getting clean, advanced technology vehicles onto Washington’s roads.

- The program would reduce emissions of smog-forming, toxic and global warming pollution.

- The program also would ensure a consistent supply of clean vehicles for Washington’s consumers, create economies of scale necessary to allow the construction of alternative-fuel infrastructure, set high standards for vehicle technology, and help guide the development of even cleaner automotive technologies in the years to come.

The goals of the programs are attainable and achieving them would be beneficial to Washington.