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Cars and Global Warming: Policy Options for Washington to Reduce Global Warming from Pollution from Cars and Light Trucks 3/12/2005 CarsAndGlobalWarming.pdf

Executive Summary

Washington could significantly limit its contribution to glo bal warming over the next two decades by adopting the Clean Cars program to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from cars and light trucks.

Global warming poses a serious threat to Washington’s future. Scientists project that average temperatures in Washington could increase by 2° to 9° F over the next century if no action is taken to reduce emissions of global warming pollution— potentially leading to coastal flooding, significantly decreased snowpack, increased air pollution and heatrelated deaths, and a host of other impacts on Washington’s environment, public health and economy (p. 7).

Controlling global warming pollution from the transportation sector—and particularly cars and light trucks—will be an essential part of Washington’s strategy for reducing global warming emissions.

The transportation sector is responsible for 52 percent of Washington’s releases of carbon dioxide—the leading global warming gas. Cars and light trucks—such as pickups, minivans and SUVs—are the most important sources of global warming pollution in the transportation sector, responsible for nearly half of all transportation sector emissions and about one-fifth of Washington’s total emissions of global warming pollution (p. 9).

Carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks in Washington is likely to increase by approximately 55 percent over 1990 levels by 2020 unless action is taken to reduce emissions.

• Carbon dioxide emissions from the Washington light-duty vehicle fleet are projected to experience a 13 percent increase over 2000 levels by 2010, followed by a further 17 percent increase between 2010 and 2020 (p. 13-14).

• The stagnation in federal corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for cars and light trucks, the recent shift toward greater use of less fuel-efficient light trucks, including SUVs, and increasing vehicle travel have put Washington on a course toward dramatically increased emissions of carbon dioxide from transportation over the next two decades.

Adopting the Clean Cars program— with its Low-Emission Vehicle (LEV II) program and the vehicle global warming pollution standards—would be an important step to reducing greenhouse gas pollution from cars and trucks.

• The LEV II program will pave the way for the widespread introduction of clean, advanced technology vehicles (such as hybrid-electric vehicles) that could result in dramatic, long-term reductions in carbon emissions. In the process, it will lead to light-duty carbon dioxide emission reductions of about 1.3 percent below projected levels by 2020 (p. 19).

• Vehicle global warming pollution standards (also known as the “Pavley” standards for their original legislative sponsor in California) could produce significant reductions in vehicle carbon dioxide emissions as cars are equipped with direct-injection engines, advanced transmissions, improved air conditioning systems, and other advanced technologies. These improvements could reduce emissions from new cars by 30 percent by 2016. If Washington were to implement the program beginning in 2008 (when model year 2009 vehicles go on sale), it could reduce carbon dioxide pollution from the car and light truck fleet by about 12 percent below projected levels by 2020. Savings will continue to increase in later years as older vehicles are replaced with ones that comply with the new emissions standard (p. 20-21).

• Increased equipment costs will be offset by reduced operating costs so that the purchaser of a new car is projected to save $3 per month in 2016 when the standards are fully phased in. Buyers of light trucks will save even more (p. 21).

• Even with implementation of both components of the Clean Cars program, carbon dioxide emissions from cars and light trucks in 2020 would be significantly higher than pollution in 2000 because of a large projected increase in vehicle travel. Thus, Washington will need to adopt additional policies to reduce emissions from the transportation sector if it wishes to stabilize and reduce global warming pollution (p. 21).

Washington should move quickly to adopt policies that will stabilize, and ultimately reduce, emissions of carbon dioxide from cars and light trucks.

• Washington should adopt the Clean Car standards as a first step to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide.

• The state should also commit to implementing these standards in 2005 so that they will take effect as soon as possible, which is in model year 2009.