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Executive Summary
As Washington’s demand
for power continues to grow and national energy markets struggle for stability,
Washington state officials have the opportunity for a fundamental reassessment
of long-term energy policy. We can now choose renewable resources and energy
efficiency improvements to meet our power needs while reducing pollution, boosting
reliability, and
improving our economy.
Rapid Growth in Renewables
and Conservation Is Feasible
Renewables have advanced
technologically and commercially to the point where they are now ready for wide-scale
development, and there are still many opportunities for efficiency improvements.
Huge untapped potential exists at both the state and national levels.
• Electricity demand
in Washington is growing at 1.3 percent per year,which would bring total demand
in 2015 to 2,000 average MW (aMW)higher than it is today. Non-hydro renewable
energy sources and energy conservation could meet all of this demand growth
with a comfortable buffer.
• Wind power is the
renewable technology the state could develop most quickly. 625 aMW of Washington’s
3,800 aMW total wind power potential could come online by 2010 and
1,260 aMW by 2015.
• By investing in cost-effective energy efficiency measures,Washington
could reduce anticipated total electricity demand by six percent by 2010 and
nine percent by 2015. This would save 720 aMW by 2010 and 1,160 aMW by 2015.
• Solar power is expanding
rapidly. The small current capacity will grow to significant levels over the
next ten years and become a major source of electricity thereafter.
• Widespread direct
use of geothermal resources can greatly reduce electricity demand.
•Nationally, 125,000
MW of renewable energy capacity could be operational by 2010, enough to replace
80 large fossil fuel power plants.
•Policies promoting
energy efficiency could cut the nation’s electricity demand by 15 percent,saving
72,000 aMW annually.
Renewables and Conservation
Reduce Pollution
If these goals are achieved
in place of natural gas power plant development, Washington would reduce annual
carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from power plants by 10 million tons per year
by 2015. This would also avoid a 22 percent increase in health-damaging nitrogen
oxide pollution. Nationally by 2010,energy efficiency and renewable energy development
at the levels
described above would enable the U.S.to reduce CO 2 emissions by as much as
37 perent—one billion tons annually—compared to projections for the
current path from the U.S. Department of Energy. Health-damaging pollution would
be reduced by as much as 43 percent.
Renewables and Conservation
Boost Reliability
Diversifying the state’s
energy sources would increase the overall reliability of the electricity supply.
• Over-reliance on
fossil fuels and hydro power is among the biggest reasons for recent energy
struggles. Ignoring renewable energy opportunities and deepening our reliance
on fossil fuels would invite more price spikes and supply shortages.
• The historic average
downtime for natural gas plants is higher than for wind, solar, and geothermal
energy.
• Solar power is particularly
valuable for its quality of reaching maximum output at times of peak demand.
Renewables and Conservation
Are the Best Economic Choices
Policies encouraging renewables
and energy efficiency would grow the economy more than a business-as-usual scenario.
• Four major studies
in recent years each found that broad packages of policies encouraging clean
energy development have greater economic returns than costs.
• Many wind and geothermal
projects can produce electricity at a lower cost than fossil fuels when external
lifecycle costs of electricity generation are taken into
account.
• Energy efficiency
programs of the past five years nationwide have avoided the need for 25,000-30,000
MW of generating capacity—the equivalent of 100 power
plants—at a cost that is less than that of energy from most new power plants.
Comprehensive Energy
Policies Are Needed
Specific policies that would
best help Washington and the nation realize their clean energy potential include:
• An energy conservation standard requiring all retail electricity suppliers
to meet a percentage of future power needs with energy conservation.
• A renewable energy
standard requiring all retail electricity suppliers to obtain a set percentage
of their electricity from renewable sources.
• No new permits for
fossil fuel-based power plants beyond the many permits that have recently been
granted.
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